Aug 10, 2007

Top 50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar



By Jessica Hupp

Would you believe something as mundane as a rainstorm in New England can affect the value of the Dollar? It’s true. The US Dollar is subject to numerous influences, from politics to Walmart, and everything in between. The following list contains 50 factors that affect the value of the US dollar, both big and small.

Balance of trade and investment

The balance of trade and investment is often cited by analysts as the most important influence on the value of the dollar, with good reason. The balance of trade, related to the current account, represents the difference between what the US exports and imports in terms of goods and services.

The balance of investment, or financial account, represents the difference in exports and imports of capital. If exports exceed imports, in either the current account or financial account, it is called a surplus. When imports exceed exports, on the other hand, it is referred to as a deficit. The following points elaborate on how the current account and financial account affect the USD.

1. Balance of trade: Otherwise known as the current account balance, the trade balance is equal to the difference between imports and exports. The US has been running a trade deficit with the rest of the world for most of recent memory. At $2 billion a day and growing, the trade deficit is making foreign investors increasingly nervous and can affect the dollar significantly.
2. Falling prices on foreign goods: When the prices of foreign goods decrease, they become more attractive to American consumers, creating a larger trade deficit. Conversely, a rise in the prices of foreign goods, through natural price inflation or because or increased demand, can make American goods look more attractive and help to narrow the trade deficit. This also supports American industry and the economy. All of this serves to help the dollar.
3. Balance of investment: When the US imports more than it exports, it means investors from other countries have to buy US assets to keep the dollar from falling. Simply stated, if the US imports more than it exports, foreign investors must buy dollar-denominated assets like bonds or treasury securities in order to offset the difference.

Politics

Government policies often have a great impact on the value of the dollar. Savvy foreign investors know to keep an eye on the state of our political affairs, especially as they impact the strength of our economy and our ability to service the national debt.

4. Budget deficit and national debt: The US government’s budget can affect the dollar’s value, too. If foreign investors see that the government is spending more money than it currently has, they know that it will be forced to borrow from future generations as well as from the private sector from foreign entities. The US national debt currently stands at $9 trillion and is growing by over $1 billion per day.
5. Little or no default on debt: When the government keeps a good credit history, risk goes down and the dollar goes up. Fortunately, the US is currently considered the world’s most credit-worthy borrower, which in large part explains why the dollar has remained strong.
6. President’s popularity: Often, the popularity of the US president is tied to the value of the dollar. Experts debate whether or not the two have an effect on each other, but reports point out that “international investors like to a see a strong U.S. executive because they prefer a single national decider setting the agenda and fear a fractious, parochial Congress.”
7. Terrorist attacks and war: Attacks damage consumer and business confidence, hampering economic growth. They also increase the likelihood of war, and consequently, a budget deficit to support associated spending. An ongoing war can quickly become expensive. It makes investors nervous because it will likely increase our national debt, and slightly increase the risk of default.
8. Geopolitical events: Anything that could be seen as precipitating a conflict or foreign involvement can affect the dollar negatively. The value isn’t necessarily about what it’s actually worth, but rather what investors think it’s worth. Perception is often reality in the forex markets.
9. Consistent policies: If investors feel that things will largely stay the same, they’ll flock to the dollar because it’s a safe bet. This increases demand and thus, the value of the dollar. Remember, unlike many other investment vehicles, forex is hurt by volatility. This is especially true with regard to financial policy: if investors believe US policy is on the right track, they’ll want to put money in dollar-denominated investments. Conversely, investors can lose faith in an economy that can change with new policies, so they’ll see the dollar as less of a safe bet.
10. Government expansion: New departments and increased government functions cost money, too. Like other government expenses, expanding or creating new groups like the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security can lower the dollar’s value due to their opportunity cost against other expenses in the budget.
11. Elections: Confidence in or wariness of a new administration can cause investors to flock to or flee from the dollar. Also, as new members of Congress are elected, new laws are passed which can affect our economy. Foreign investors may react positively or negatively to these changes, affecting the dollar’s value.
12. Tax cuts for consumers: Tax cuts for consumers fuel spending, which can improve the economy of our country as well as others, like China. This can be good for the dollar as long as it does not deepen the trade deficit or our budget deficit. On the other hand, increases in taxes discourage personal spending, but they help with government spending and debt. This can slow the economy, but at the same time lessen our deficits.

Other countries

Political impact on the dollar does not originate entirely from the US; it can come from all over the world. Trade, conflict, consumption, and other issues can affect the dollar from outside our country.

13. Turmoil in other countries: When other countries are in a state of conflict, their respective currencies may be perceived as unstable. In this case, investors may flock to the dollar because it is considered a safer bet.
14. Stability in other countries: On the other hand, if other countries are consistent in their policy-making as well as politically and economically stable, the dollar may weaken because investors have more confidence in these alternative currencies. They’ll see them as less risky and diversify into non-dollar denominated assets.
15. A change in foreign reserves: The USD benefits strongly from being the world’s reserve currency. Most central banks hold more dollars than any other currency, but the dollar faces problems when they decide to diversify their currency investments. This could mean that they sell dollars, or simply just stop buying more. This is especially damaging when a large purchaser like China decides to stop adding to its foreign reserves.
16. A strengthening Euro: The dollar faces competition from the rising Euro. It’s an attractive alternative to the dollar when investors choose to diversify or if the dollar becomes unstable.
17. Acceptance of oil in dollars: As long as the majority of world oil contracts are settled in USD, other countries have to use the currency. This increases demand for the dollar and therefore, its value. Additionally, most oil exporters hold a significant portion of their oil proceeds in dollars.
18. Strong foreign economies: If other countries’ economies are booming, the dollar may fall because it will become a relatively less attractive place to invest.

Entitlements

As a significant government expense, entitlement programs can have a large impact on the way investors view the value of the dollar. If it looks like the US is letting things get out of hand, these programs can shake the confidence of investors. These are a few of the programs and issues that affect the dollar.

19. Social Security: It’s apparent to Americans and foreigners alike that Social Security is a sinking ship that will only get worse with time. Clearly, this causes investors to lose faith in the US money management system, but when the US works to reform the program, some of this confidence is restored and the dollar can benefit.
20. Medicare/Medicaid: Like other costly entitlements, government sponsored-health care programs are becoming difficult to maintain, which could drive investors to seek countries with more stable budgets.

Economic theory

The laws of supply and demand are ever-present in economics, and currency trading offers a prime example of this law in action. These are a few of the effects that supply and demand exert on the value of the dollar.

21. Demand for dollars: This factor can be tied to most others, but it can function on its own as well. For example, “if French investors saw an opportunity in the U.S., they might be willing to pay more francs in order to get dollars to invest in the U.S.” More francs per dollar means the dollar’s value has risen.
22. Demand for physical currency outside the US: Some countries accept dollars as a physical currency, so they need a supply. For example, “large international demand for US currency bills in the 1990s gave the US government a unique and inexpensive-to-produce export.” Although it requires supplying more currency, this is a factor that can strengthen the dollar’s value.
23. Increase in money supply: With every new dollar printed, each one is valued less than before. The more dollars there are in circulation, the less the currency is valued because the supply has been increased. In practice, this usually causes inflation, which directly eats into the value of the dollar. While this would seem difficult to measure, the Federal Reserve periodically publishes M2 and M3 data reports on the US money supply.

Interest rates

Just like consumers might shop around for the highest-yielding savings account, foreign investors look for the best deal in currencies. Here’s how interest rates affect the dollar’s value.

24. Rise in interest rates: Higher interest rates mean more profit for investors, so a US rate hike will generally strengthen the dollar. In the long-term, however, the law of interest rate parity dictates that currency valuations and interest rates should move in opposite directions. The opposite also holds true. If the Fed lowers interest rates, investors might drop the dollar in the short-term because there’s not enough profit in it.
25. Attractive interest rates in other countries: Regardless of whether US interest rates are rising or falling, the dollar’s value also depends on how US interest rates stack up to those of other countries. If US rates are lower, investors may switch to different currencies that can offer a better return. On the other hand, if other currencies have unattractive interest rates, that allows us to entice investors with a better deal.

Click here for the rest of the list...

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酒店上班的種類很多,光大台北地區分為東區、中山區兩大區塊就有分類便服店、禮服店、制服店、鋼琴酒吧、日式酒店、飯局、傳播。洋洋灑灑加總就30幾家酒店每種類型酒店所需要小姐的條件也不同,於是酒店小姐這份工作是競爭的。八大行業酒店小姐成績不理想也是會被裁員的(如:酒店小姐上班收入比白天工作薪資還少…就是酒店業者裁員的對象)。
1: 酒店打工小姐們如何判斷自己適合在什麼的店呢?誠懇面對自己外型條件吧(外表是可以調整的)這行是以外型取勝!(當然沒有人願意犧牲啊),任何一份工作都有它辛苦的面何況高收入的八大行業。
2: 酒店兼差一週可以上幾天班? 能配合哪個時間打卡上班? 是否有門禁問題?
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梁爵 said...

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梁爵 said...

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梁爵 said...

2020.05.12酒店、舞廳解禁酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容開放有望!新冠肺炎台灣疫情緩和、穩定控制,中央流行疫情指揮中心昨日我在酒店上班的日子宣布,目前暫停營業的酒店、舞廳等酒店小姐一定有S?業者,在符合防疫安全條件下,八大行業可開放營業,且不受室內100人、室外500人人數限制。巧合的是,今日職場須知 【酒店PT 】剛好是酒店、舞廳停業滿月,指揮中心此話一出,相關酒店打工行業人士都很期待。記者實訪一名在北市中山區酒店工作的女公關軒軒,她表示若酒店真解禁,實質上生意一定會爆好,因為台商、業者都「忍很久了」。軒軒說,她所服務的地方為私人招待所,受酒店禁令也暫時歇業至今,這一個月來她都沒進店裡上班,與其他公關們大多轉戰KTV、卡拉OK或是飯局模式;而客層方面,多為熟客與幹部所介紹的友善客人,故在安危顧慮上較放心;但即便如此。收入仍大受影響,跟之前比少了六成,不過因她沒有家計負擔,故這段時間她也當做休息,更規畫了東部旅遊。而對疫情這段時間的感想?軒軒說,其實酒店業並不是四月時有酒店公關確診才受影響,而是台灣確診1月下旬有確診者後,2、3月生意就明顯下滑,因為「有錢人超怕死!」也擔心來消費後確診,很難對親友交代,故2月起收入就已下滑。軒軒也說,而酒店業是「連動」、最能反應「台灣經濟」的產業。經濟好時,來消費、甚至談生意的客人就多;而一蕭條,酒店、幹部、旗下小姐收入銳減,連樓下賣花、賣香腸、一整條賣衣物、精品的店家都受影響,是一層接一層環環相扣的。軒軒跟記者分享一個特別觀點,就是酒店停業這一個月時間,她的總收入雖大減,但是「客單」(顧客單筆消費)收入卻超高。她解釋,因為這段時間都轉戰如錢櫃KTV、卡拉OK等方式,客人消費、開酒遠比在酒店時便宜、小費也多外,收入部分因不用透過酒店營銷、幹部等關卡,少了中間抽成,故費用都是「實拿」,也算是這段時間的特別之處。

梁爵 said...

2020.05.23酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容八大世界的融資邏輯在性交易不合法、陪侍業遊走於法律邊緣的情況下,酒店公關與我在酒店上班的日子性工作者常被屏除在社會安全網與信用制度外,幾乎不可能和銀行等金融機構借貸,辦房貸、車貸時需要人頭,這時就會向恩客或經紀人求援。經紀人除了確保酒店打工小姐們工作時的安全、陪上下班跑店接送、情緒低落時灌心靈雞湯外,也經常是她們的債主甚至信用保證人,要放貸酒店上班-酒店兼職-兼差如何達成人生的第一桶金必須自己口袋夠深,也有不少經紀人酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?被借錢借到倒。「我會借出去的款項,基本上都是我覺得沒有還也還好的數目,當然也要評估妹仔有沒有這個產值,正妹優先。」一名酒店經紀這樣談自己的借錢哲學職場須知 【酒店PT 】:「一個相貌普通的妹仔開口就要借個十幾萬,是不會有正常人想理她的,何況有的妹仔連上一任經紀人的錢都沒還完呢!」在顏值與人頭都能變現的世界,經紀人除了用各種管道開發有意進八大淘金的新血,有的也會從同行手中「洗妹」,像洗牌一樣把屬意的小姐洗到自己旗下,或是用妹海戰術賺錢。一個酒店小姐的經紀約平均交易價格是三萬元,有債務的則另議前後任經紀的償還比例,越弱勢的就會面臨越嚴苛的勞動條件。在肺炎疫情餘波未平、政府宣布八大全面歇業之際,手上銀彈多的經紀能「危機入市」,然而,洗妹要不犯江湖忌諱是一門大學問,擋人財路如殺人父母,事小的道歉包個紅包做結,大者是會動拳腳刀槍來拼命的。酒店、養生館為了店內秩序,禁止小姐們交流薪資與經紀人抽成比例,也難防耳語傳聞「唉呦你的公司怎麼這麼苛?我一節就拿多少多少說!」「你這麼正,怎麼在這邊上不好?你經紀人都不想辦法的噢?」「我可以幫你介紹某某,某某會幫你如此這般……」知道水深的老鳥不是幾句甜言蜜語過個水就洗得動,但在無限期停業的政策推一把後,頓失生計的八大基層會衍生多少糾紛、呆帳與治安問題?這些問題又會如何反饋到「光明社會」的這一面,恐怕不是此一時能夠斷言的。八大因疫情停業並不會讓情慾需求消失,一名應召站幹部說,「如果大家能滿足在家裡打手槍,那一開始就不會來了。」除了多與嫖客喇賽疫情的五四三,他依舊周休一日每天值班十二小時,整理新的花名冊,戮力為客人仲介各式各樣的溫柔。站在道德的相對高點,質疑他人的職業選擇、想像做八大一定日進斗金、要求紓困補助都是貪婪很容易,深入了解不同族群的苦衷、共同承擔困境永遠是最艱難的,希望在這波尚無配套的八大歇業命令後,大家可以思考:膝反射式的傲慢是否和瘟疫一樣致命?

梁爵 said...

酒店公關可以交往嗎?相關心理學分析
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